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The game is 5-10 hold em, passive loose. Mid position KQo calls un-raised pot.  Flop is 7 10 2 rainbow. Button bets, two more callers. What does KQ do, call with the over cards or assume someone has flopped a pair or better and dump the hand?

Answer 1:

With this type of game, KQo is probably beaten by a small pair or even an over pair, and also stands a chance of being beaten by an AX on or off-suit. Dump it quickly.

Answer 2:

If the game is loose-passive, don’t you have to make this assumption? They’re passive, so they don’t bet without a hand, and they’re loose, so this flop could easily have smacked the bettor in the head. Since it’s the button, you might say, “He’s just betting the button.” But that’s not particularly passive. Given that, you have 6 outs to over cards that often won’t be good. On the fly, I’d call it 3 outs and do the pot-odds math. Fold here. Don’t fold always.

Answer 3:

It’s worth a bit more than that.  Given that he is getting at least 7:1 odds (maybe more?) on a call, he only needs 6 good outs to make the call break even. If you give 4 outs for the over cards, and 2 outs for the nut runner straight, it’s a call. Of course, whether he is actually *in* this position is dubious. I’d say it’s a close fold, and just like someone else, you got to call sometimes. But only call when the opponents are bad and play in a very predictable manner. If you had a backdoor flush, it would be an automatic call.

Which of these two is the better starting hand in Omaha/8: (1) Ace-Deuce double-suited or (2) Ace-Five, Ace-Ten double-suited. Nut flush possibilities are even.  Hand (2) has two straight possibilities (including the nut straight), to one for Hand (1), but Hand (1) has better trips, full house and quads possibilities, and with only two deuces live for other players, has better low possibilities. Assume the hands are not in the same deal.

Answer 1:

I assume that for the first hand you mean two aces and two deuces both suited. That hand is far superior to the second hand against random other hands due to the far greater probability of getting the lock low. A-2 will beat 2-3, 3-4 and many other low combinations that could win low from A-5. And the extra deuce protects you somewhat from a low being counterfeited on the board or quartered. The probability of a straight is fairly low when you need a run of exactly 3 intervening cards so that has little effect. With both of these, your main shot at high are from a flush or the pair of aces. The paired deuces mean that if your low is counterfeited, at least you have a set or better for high.

Answer 2:

According to Doc Hutchison’s Omaha HiLo Hand Selection Point System the A2sA2s beats the A5sA10s easily. Hand one gets 39 points…. 20 for A2, 3 for 2-2′s, 4 for Ace suited, 4 for Ace suited again and 8 for a pair of aces for 39 points. Doc says you should consider raising for hands with more than 30 points. Hand two gets 27 points… 10 points for A-5, 4 for Ace suited, 4 for Ace suited again, one point for the 10 kicker and 8 for a pair of aces for 27 points. I was surprised at the point total for hand 2. I would have thought it would be lower, but the pair of aces really kicks it into a higher level.

Answer 3:

Just goes to show that point systems don’t work. In a typical looseCaliforniagame where you can expect 4-5 callers on the lop, AA5T is just playable, and not at all because of the pair of Aces. Big pairs only really matter in tightOmahagames where only 2-3 players see a flop. Even there, having a low of A5 won’t let you stay for most flops.

I have to do a statistics project for my math class, and I chose as a subject Poker. I have a lot of interest in the game and see a lot of potential for a project since there is so much math involved. Now my problem is to come up with a question which I can answer using a simulation or by playing many, many hands. The only thing that I’ve come up with so far is whether it is better, when given a hand like Jd, Jh, Kd, 7s, 3c to throw out the king, 7and 4 or to throw out only the 7 and 3. This is problematic, however, because how can you give a value to having two Jacks and two Kings to having three Jacks?

Answer 1:

That’s not a good candidate for simulation. That question can easily be addressed by direct computation. I think the issue of giving value to two pair or three jacks in draw poker was addressed in an article in Operations Research. It didn’t use much advanced math either. You can find the citation by going to the IFORMS website and doing a bibliography search on keyword poker. That article did not use simulation. You might think about 7-card stud for questions that get too cumbersome to address directly and are better suited to simulation.

Answer 2:

You could try a problem like if I am sitting in an O/8 game with an A-5 and a 2-3-8 flop, what is the likelihood that another player has seen the flop with an A-4 or an A-5. The probability varies with the number of players calling pre-flop. This would vary with how loose the game was, starting hand selection, etc. The Turbo O/8 program would be useful to address this. The answer would be useful to me the next time that I am seated in a game with the A-5 and a 2-3-x(x=6+) flop. A different type of problem would be to simulate the probabilistic distribution of outcomes in a session (or week, month, or year) for a poor player, average or good making some assumptions about typical pot size, contribution, and probability of winning hands. I’d like a curve that shows how likely is it that I’d lose 8 sessions out of 10 if I average winning 2BBs per hour. I want to be able to see when I should begin to disbelieve that I really average 2BBs.

Answer 3:

Since this evidently is a statistics project, here is my suggestion: calculate the probability of various hands being dealt in 5 cards (as they are in 5-card stud). I suggest 5-card stud because the calculations will be the easiest. Also, you can check your numbers (remember to show your work, now) for the probability of hands against any number of poker sources. Then simulate a buttload of 5-card hands. You can compute standard deviations, variances, and other interesting things for various numbers of
hands, and get some real-life, hands-on experience in how different theory and reality can be.  How likely is it that the hands will reflect probability calculations after 100 hands are dealt? After 1,000? (If you have a computer, after 10,000 or 100,000?)  You can begin to see why even good poker players can lose a lot of money, especially in the short run. Notice how, for large numbers of hands, the results tend to “converge” around the probable outcomes. This is a demonstration of Large Numbers.

I was in a 10/20-stud game and after the betting round on5th streetwas complete, the player with the high hand said “I check.” The dealer tossed out the cards forSixth Streetand I was now high because my new card gave me an open pair. The player who was high on5th streetand had said “I check” before we got our cards, got a spade which gave him 4 face up spades. Since I could not beat a flush, I checked as did the 2 other players. The player with the 4 spades now wanted to bet. A giant argument took place. So I guess my question is when the betting round begins. Once the betting on the 5th round was over, did the 6th round start or do all or some of the cards have to be delivered for next betting round to begin? Should this player have been held to a check or allowed to bet? Thanks for any help you can give.

Answer 1:

I would rule that a “verbal” declaration is binding since the betting on 5th streetwas complete. Your verbal obligation on action should stand until any round is completed. Example: before burn onSixth Streetsame guys says: “I check if I get another spade!” Surely that isn’t binding? I have never had to get a ruling.

Answer 2:

The rule regarding this is typically worded that a verbal declaration “in turn” is binding.  Now, this guy thought he was next when he said check, but since it turned out it wasn’t actually his turn, his declaration would most likely be ruled not binding in most rooms. However, the rules everywhere are different, so you’ll have to ask the floor in your room. Also, in many cases like this that probably aren’t explicitly spelled out in the rulebook, you can easily get different interpretations from different floor people.

Answer 3:

He should be allowed to bet. I suspect that the argument arose because of the verbal declaration of “Check”, which IS binding, but ONLY when it is made in turn. In this case he lost the lead( at this point he was 4th to act), his check was out of turn therefore nul and voiding it. If he had in fact retained the lead and was high hand to act first, the check
would be considered binding and the action would continue to the following player.